There was a time when predicting NBC renewals was easy. If it were One Chicago or Law & Order, it was safe.
And for the first time in years, that model looks shaky.
Even when other shows have tumbled to cancellation levels, One Chicago and Law & Order entries have kept the lights on and been deemed reliable performers.
These are not cheap dramas. Veteran casts command veteran salaries, and long-running procedural universes come with infrastructure costs that newer shows don’t.
Reliable performers are necessary when any network is going through difficult times, but I fear that we’re about to lose some of these shows as the 2025-26 season wraps up.
It’s time to take a deep dive into NBC as a whole and establish what could be about to go down as the channel mulls a shakeup.
Of course, NBC has pilots with David Boreanaz, Emily Deschanel, Peter Krause, and Taylor Schilling on its development slate.
All four shows sound procedural, which seems to be the only thing that the broadcast networks will roll the dice on nowadays.
Each of these shows has a legion of fans, so there’s every reason to believe the network could pick up as many as three of them.
The network has scaled back its scripted offerings in recent years, but it seems time to switch things up, unless, of course, it is considering canceling a substantial number of dramas.
For the first time in a long time, there are no certain renewals down below. It’s just too difficult to assess because the long-running shows could all have too high budgets to sustain.
The uncomfortable truth? NBC may not be trimming one show. It may be resetting its entire scripted strategy.
Chicago Med – Likely Renewal
The second One Chicago spinoff has been relatively resilient in a troubled TV landscape.
Chicago Med Season 11 is averaging 5.5 million total viewers and a 0.34 rating among adults 18-49. Currently, it ranks as NBC’s number one scripted offering in live+same-day metrics.
Also going in its favor: The decade-old drama hasn’t lost as much ground as Chicago Fire and Chicago P.D. in the ratings this year.
The numbers on Peacock are probably very good for the show, too, because it regularly lands in the streaming platform’s top ten the morning after it airs on NBC.
If NBC trims here, it won’t be about performance. It will be about cost containment.
Chicago Fire – Likely Renewal
The original entry in the One Chicago universe, Chicago Fire, is currently averaging 5.2 million viewers and a 0.32 rating in the demo.
Creative fatigue is setting in, and that’s often the first sign a long-running drama is nearing its expiration date — even if the ratings haven’t fully cratered yet.
But there are signs that viewers are growing tired of the show as a whole — Chicago Fire Season 14 is currently tracking almost 20 percent behind last season in the adults 18-49 demo.
Of course, these losses could be mitigated by increased viewing post-airdate, but without anything from NBC to indicate that, we’ll never know.
St. Denis Medical – Renewed
The mockumentary from the people who brought us Superstore has the rare distinction of being the only NBC show to grow year over year in total viewers.
These numbers are, again, based on live + same-day figures, but still, a rise proves that a show is connecting and that new people are finding it.
That bodes well for the future, so it makes sense that NBC has already renewed St. Denis Medical for Season 3.
Law & Order: Special Victims Unit – Likely Renewal
The Mariska Hargitay-fronted procedural has taken quite a beating in the 18-49 demographic this season, but not enough to knock it out of NBC’s top five shows in the demo.
Law & Order: SVU Season 27 is currently delivering 3.7 million viewers and a 0.30 rating among the advertiser-craved demographic.
Given how long it’s been on the air, I’d like to think NBC would give it a planned final season if it were to end.
It’s not in any immediate danger, but it’s not as sturdy as it once was.
Chicago PD – Likely Renewal
Sadly, the show has lost considerable ground this season, with Chicago PD Season 13 currently averaging 4.2 million viewers and a 0.28 rating among adults 18-49.
It’s down a little over 20% in the demographic, but it remains a solid offering for a 10 p.m. drama.
It should be a lock for renewal, but it will all come down to what the network has planned.
Happy’s Place – Renewed
NBC has already announced the fate of this Reba McEntire comedy, and it’s good news.
Happy’s Place Season 2 is averaging 3 million viewers and a 0.24 rating — very respectable for Friday evenings.
Newer comedies have faced an uphill battle on the broadcast networks in recent years, but NBC seems to be on to a winner with this one and St. Denis Medical.
Law & Order – Could Go Either Way
The original Law & Order has been canceled once before, and it truly seems like the show is headed for another banishment from NBC.
Law & Order Season 25 is currently enthralling 3.7 million viewers, but the 18-49 demo is soft at a 0.24 rating.
For a franchise built on legacy, a 0.24 demo rating is not the kind of number that guarantees survival.
NBC has already proven that nostalgia alone won’t save this series.
Stumble – Likely Cancellation
This freshman comedy hasn’t been faring as well as expected.
Stumble Season 1 is averaging 1.8 million viewers and a 0.16 rating.
These numbers could be much higher with streaming factored in, but if the on-air numbers are this low, NBC will likely look to fill its slot with a new comedy that has the potential to breakout in a way Stumble didn’t manage.
Sadly, it seems this one will be dropped from NBC’s schedule.
The Hunting Party – Likely Cancellation
This Melissa Roxburgh procedural drama has suffered from the dreaded sophomore slump, ratings-wise.
The Hunting Party Season 2 — with a far more compatible lead-in than last season — has shed almost a third of its 18-49 demographic.
The series is currently averaging 2.4 million viewers and a 0.14 rating.
We’re still very early into the season, so unless it has a late-season resurgence, it probably won’t be back.
Brilliant Minds – Certain Cancellation
This one stings because Brilliant Minds Season 1 was such a refreshing medical drama.
However, this season has eradicated most of what made it so addictive.
Brilliant Minds Season 2 is averaging 1.9 million viewers and a 0.14 rating in the demo.
The show is down almost 40% in both total viewers and the demo.
When a network quietly pulls episodes midseason, that’s rarely a vote of confidence.
Okay, TV Fanatics. I’ve laid out where your favorite shows stand, and now I want to hear from YOU.
What is your ideal schedule for NBC next season? Are there any shows you think the network absolutely HAS to move on from?
Hit the comments.
Be sure to bookmark this page, because we’ll be keeping it updated as decisions are made about your favorite NBC series.
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